Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jun 2003

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Region 397 (N10E65) is now
fully visible near east limb, and is an elongated sunspot group with
a larger leader. Intermittent C-class activity has occurred in the
region. Otherwise, the remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
magnetosphere remained under the influence of a high speed stream
for another day, emanating from the large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The energetic electron flux at GOES was
again high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at primarily active to minor storm levels.
Episodic major storming is a distinct possibility. The influence of
the high speed stream will be felt through July 1.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

• Class M 25/25/25
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Jun 124
• Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 125/130/130
• 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 021/028
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 020/032
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 020/035-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/40
• Minor storm 40/40/30
• Major-severe storm 20/20/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 50/50/40
• Major-severe storm 25/25/20