Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jun 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jun 28 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 8
(S10W56) produced a C1/Sf flare as it continued to slowly decay.
This region may have been the source for a partial-halo coronal mass
ejection (CME) off the southwest limb late yesterday. Region 11
(S11W19) also continued to gradually decay. Minor spot growth was
noted in Region 17 (S19E02) and there appeared to be a minor mix of
polarities within its trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during the latter
half of the period in response to yesterday’s partial halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 137
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 007/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
