Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1532 (S22E49) produced
a M6/2n x-ray flare at 28/2056Z along with an associated Tenflare
(370 sfu), a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1387
km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep. Further analysis will be conducted
as more data becomes available. Newly numbered Region 1534 (N17E55)
was observed developing in the northeastern quadrant of the visible
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels for the next 3 days (29-31
July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before
increasing to unsettled levels after 28/1200Z due to extended
periods of southward Bz and possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days 1 and 2 (29-30 July) due
to CH effects, and recover to mostly quiet on day 3 (31 July) as
conditions wane.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 127
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 024/015-024/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/01
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 45/45/01