Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1260 (N19E17) produced
multiple C-flares during the period, the largest a C5 at 1212Z.
Region 1260 increased in magnetic complexity and is classified as a
Eac spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.
Region 1261 (N15E49) has exhibited slight rotational motion and is
classified a Dko with a Beta magnetic classification. Region 1262
(N16W49) has decayed to a simple Axx group. New Regions 1263
(N18E73) and 1264 (S31E50) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at predominantly low levels with a chance for M-class flares from
Region 1260.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the first two days (29-30 July). On
day three (31 July) activity is expected to increase to unsettled
levels with the chance for active periods due to effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 107
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/40
Minor storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/10