Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jul 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
July 28, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jul 2006
http://images.spaceref.com/news/sun.4.jpg

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions. Major storm periods were observed between 28/0000 to 0300 UTC and 28/0300 to 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased early in the period from approximately 470 km/s to a maximum of 710 km/s around 28/0400 UTC. Wind speed has been slowly declining and ended the summary period at approximately 570 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 29 July. On 30 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 31 July, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective position causing unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Jul 073
  • Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 020/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 008/010-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/25
  • Minor storm 10/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.