Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jul 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
July 28, 2003
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jul 2003

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 421
(S08E67) has shown significant growth over the period and has begun
to produce B and C-class flares. A weak gamma magnetic structure
has become evident in the central portion of the region. Newly
numbered Region 422 (N14W41) appears to be a fully developed region
(possibly the return of old Region 400) and has also produced B and
C-class flares today. This region may have a fair degree of
magnetic complexity, but it is currently too close to the east limb
for a comprehensive analysis.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 421 and 422 may both have the potential to
produce an isolated low level M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are expected throughout the interval
due to high speed solar wind effects.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Jul 103
  • Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/115/120
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 016/024
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 020/025-015/025-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/40
  • Minor storm 20/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/40
  • Minor storm 30/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.