Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48)
produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was
numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached
a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of
this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still
in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from
the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January)
due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on
27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three
(31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January)
and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two
(30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/70/20
PCAF In Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 115
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/15
Minor storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/30/20
Minor storm 05/30/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01