Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A R1 Radio blackout was observed in association with a M1
flare at 28/0103Z from Region 1149 (N17, L = 349). A CME observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0206Z and a Type II radio sweep, observed at
28/0101Z with an estimated velocity of 732 km/s, were both
associated with this event. Two new regions were numbered today,
Region 1150 (S22E62) and Region 1151 (N09W60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
A proton enhancement was observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft reaching
a max of 2.8 pfu at 28/1625Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29-31
January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 081
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01