Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 28 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 727 (S05W16)
has been in steady decay for the last few days. Otherwise, no
significant development was observed from the active regions on the
visible disk, and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be influenced by increasing solar wind speed throughout
the next three days as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position. Quiet to active conditions are expected 29-31 January,
with isolated minor storming possible 29-30 January.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Jan 085
- Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 018/030-016/020-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 30/25/20
- Major-severe storm 20/15/10
