Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 28, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2003
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SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray event, associated
with a filament disappearance near S19W19, occurred at 27/2219 UTC.
This was the only C-class event on an otherwise quiet day. Little of
significance developed in any of the nine spotted regions. New
region 274 (S06E71) rotated into view as a mature “H-type” spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Episodes of substorming
occurred in local nighttime sectors.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Jan 126
  • Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 130/135/140
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 012/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/008-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes
A

  • ctive 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.