Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2003
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray event, associated
with a filament disappearance near S19W19, occurred at 27/2219 UTC.
This was the only C-class event on an otherwise quiet day. Little of
significance developed in any of the nine spotted regions. New
region 274 (S06E71) rotated into view as a mature “H-type” spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Episodes of substorming
occurred in local nighttime sectors.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Jan 126
- Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 130/135/140
- 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
A
- ctive 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05