Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1164 (N26E33) produced a C2/Sf flare associated with a Type
II Sweep and an M1 event at 28/1252Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (01-03 March). A chance for M-class activity
exists from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for the next three days (01-03 March) due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 096
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 095/095/098
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01