Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
March 1, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. The visible solar disk was spotless. A slow moving, asymmetric CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 27/1931Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. Solar winds speeds decayed steadily throughout the summary period from a high of near 700 km/s to a low of about 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly north (+2 to +4 nT) for a majority of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for days one and two of the forecast period (01 – 02 March). By day three (03 March), activity levels are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods possible at high latitudes. This increase in activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Feb 071
  • Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 007/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/20
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.