Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storming was observed at all latitudes as the solar wind increased to about 700 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 640 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 01 March due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 02 – 03 March.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Feb 076
• Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 007/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 010/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01