Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 739
(S04E21) is a very small and magnetically simple region, and is the
only sunspot group on the visible disk. No activity of note was
observed today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole high
speed stream is in effect; however, the IMF Bz was predominantly
northward. Solar wind speed ranged from 550 – 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Feb 075
- Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 075/075/080
- 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
