Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 1, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 28 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 739
(S04E21) is a very small and magnetically simple region, and is the
only sunspot group on the visible disk. No activity of note was
observed today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole high
speed stream is in effect; however, the IMF Bz was predominantly
northward. Solar wind speed ranged from 550 – 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Feb 075
  • Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 075/075/080
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/012-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.