Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2003
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. There were several
C-class flares today: a C3.4 at 2344 UTC from an unnumbered region
on the West limb at N11, a C1.5 at 0033 UTC, a C1.7 at 0620 UTC, and
a C1.0 at 1250 UTC from Region 293 (S19E21). Region 296 (N12E76)
was newly assigned today. SXI images from GOES-12 show two new
regions behind the East limb at approximately N11 and S16.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The
co-rotating interaction region from yesterday was followed quickly
by a high speed coronal hole stream. At geosynchronous orbit, the
greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels as the high speed
coronal hole stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
- Class M 10/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Feb 125
- Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/135/145
- 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 017/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 015/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/30/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
