Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. The visible disk remained spotless. SOHO Lasco C2 imagery observed the first of four, weak CME’s off the northeast limb beginning at 27/0530Z. The last of these CME’s was observed in C3 imagery at 27/1818Z. None of these CME’s are expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (29 – 31 December).

III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Dec 070
• Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 071/071/071
• 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01