Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 28, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 28 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 528 (N10W57) showed some decrease in areal coverage to the
spot cluster. This region continues to exhibit weak beta-gamma
characteristics. Region 532 (S11W38) was quiescent throughout the
period and appears to be in a decay phase. New Region 533 (N16E54)
was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a very slight chance of an
isolated low level M-class flare due to the magnetic complexity of
Region 528.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due to the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Dec 119
  • Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/105
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 012/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 010/014
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/010-005/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/10/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.