Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 28 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 528 (N10W57) showed some decrease in areal coverage to the
spot cluster. This region continues to exhibit weak beta-gamma
characteristics. Region 532 (S11W38) was quiescent throughout the
period and appears to be in a decay phase. New Region 533 (N16E54)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a very slight chance of an
isolated low level M-class flare due to the magnetic complexity of
Region 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due to the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Dec 119
- Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/105
- 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 012/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 010/014
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/10/15
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
