Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 29, 2006
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 905 (S08W22) produced a C1.8 flare during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a continued chance for C-class flares from Region 905.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on 29 August due to the combination of a partial halo CME observed on 26 August and the currently geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. On 30 August conditions should abate to unsettled and then to quiet on 31 August.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Aug 076
  • Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 012/018
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 012/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 020/020-012/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/35/25
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.