Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 28, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 28 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 803 (N11E27) produced the largest flare of the period, an
impulsive M1/Sf event that occurred at 28/1028Z. This region
underwent some decay of penumbral coverage during the period with a
delta structure materializing in the leading portion of this
reversed polarity spot group. A disappearing solar filament was
reported in the southwest solar quadrant, occurring between 28/0755
and 0946Z. The remaining spotted groups were quiescent over the
past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 803 is capable of producing further isolated
M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for 29-31

III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Aug 090
  • Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 090/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 004/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 005/008-005/008-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.