Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Aug 2003
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Three new regions were
numbered today; Region 447 (N16W05), 448 (N19E34), and 449 (S16E69).
None of the regions have shown any considerable activity beyond a
few small C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 449 has been slightly active, and has a slight chance of
generating M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.
Portions of the high speed stream from a departing coronal hole
remain, keeping the solar wind speeds above 420 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days. A
slight chance for minor storming exists for the next 24 hours due a
combination of the continued southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind speeds
above 400 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Aug 119
- Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 125/125/125
- 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 012/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 25/25/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
