Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 28, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 90
(S04E20) produced an M4/Sf flare at 28/1859 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
736 km/s. A significant Type four radio sweep and a Tenflare of 930
pfu were also associated with this flare. Region 83 (S18W84), which
is currently exiting the disk, produced an M1 flare (correlated
using SOHO/EIT imagery) at 28/1658 UTC. Region 87 (S08W07) showed
growth during the period as a delta magnetic spot became apparent in
the southeast portion of the spot group. Region 85 (S08W50) showed
a slight growth in penumbral coverage although remained fairly
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 87 has the potential to produce
M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 163
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 160/150/145
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.