Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar flare of the period was an C4/Sf at 1720Z
from an unnumbered region around S18E39. There are currently 9
numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk, however most have
remained rather stable and quiet. A non-Earth directed full halo CME
was observed in both STEREO A-B and LASCO imagery early in the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (28 – 30 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(28 – 30 September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 133
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05