Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N22E02) has
grown slightly in white light areal coverage and remains an E-type
group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations
from the ACE spacecraft during the period show solar wind speeds
ranging between 450-500 km/s and the IMF Bz between +5/-5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods for the next three days (28-30 September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 083
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 084/084/083
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01