Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1027 (N24W34)
is a single spot alpha group today. No flares were observed during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated
period of active conditions was observed at mid-latitudes at
27/1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (28-30
September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 072
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01