Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 911 (N07E59) has a single sunspot and is the only spotted group on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Sep 072
• Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 075/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 004/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 006/010-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05