Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Three low-level C-class flares
were observed from behind the west limb, likely from old Region 1594
(S27, L=200). Region 1598 (S11W10), a Dkc/Beta-Delta spot group,
remained the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk
and produced a B9/Sf flare at 27/1235Z. Region 1596 (N08W48), a
Dao/Beta-Gamma spot group, has shown signs of penumbral decay,
mainly in its trailer spots. The remaining two spot groups were
stable and unremarkable. A CME was observed in STEREO Ahead COR 2
imagery at 27/1824Z. Further analysis will be performed to
determine its geo-effectiveness as data becomes available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares for the next three
days (28-30 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at
approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field had minor deflections of +/- 5 nT while the total
field remained steady at 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next three days (28-30 October).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 122
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 120/115/110
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05