Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to one C-class flare, a C2
that occurred at 1844Z. The source was attributed to new Region 1333
(N15E11) which emerged today on the disk as a small, D-type sunspot
region. Region 1330 (N09E04) continues to be the largest group on
the disk as a 500 millionths E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration, but could only manage to produce a small B6 flare
0102Z. The remainder of the disk was generally quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with an additional isolated C-flare considered to be
likely. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
either of Region 1330 or 1333.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the first two days (29-29
October). An increase to unsettled levels is expected late on the
29th or early on the 30th due to high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected to continue through
30-31 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 132
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/007-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/16