Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions for 28 October. Predominately unsettled levels with isolated active conditions, and possible isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes, are expected for 29-30 October. Increased activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Oct 067
• Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/008-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/10
• Minor storm 01/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01