Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 27 2201 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. Real-time solar wind speeds have shown a decline from last reporting period at 670 km/s. Speeds are now averaging around 540 km/s with Bz continuing to range from +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions for 28-30 October.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Oct 067
• Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 008/010-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01