Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region emerged today, Region 919 (S15W01) consists of four sunspots exhibiting a Bxo beta magnetic structure.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm conditions may be possible with the expected onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated active conditions may occur on 29 October as the coronal hole wanes. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 30 October.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Oct 072
• Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 018/025-008/015-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/20/15
• Minor storm 15/05/01
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/35/15
• Minor storm 25/15/05
• Major-severe storm 15/05/01