Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity continued at low levels. Isolated small
C-class events occurred, primarily from Region 687 (N12W24). Newly
numbered Region 693 (S13E72) rotated into view with a small field of
bright plage. The LASCO Coronagraph observed a near halo CME,
apparently from the backside at approximately 1200 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled for the next 72 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 130
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 005/005-005/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05