Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
October 27, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity continued at low levels. Isolated small
C-class events occurred, primarily from Region 687 (N12W24). Newly
numbered Region 693 (S13E72) rotated into view with a small field of
bright plage. The LASCO Coronagraph observed a near halo CME,
apparently from the backside at approximately 1200 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled for the next 72 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 130
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 005/005-005/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.