Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 484 (N03W54)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.6/2n at 26/2140 UTC,
and an M2.7/2f at 27/0833 UTC that produced a CME observed on LASCO
imagery. Region 486 (S16E18) produced two major flares, an M5.0/Sf
at 27/0927 UTC and an M6.7/Sf at 27/1243 UTC. Regions 484 and 486
are stable in size and magnetic complexity. Five new regions were
numbered today: Region 488 (N09E09), Region 489 (S11E05), Region 490
(S10E25), Region 491 (S06E09), Region 492 (S22W20). Region 488 is
noteworthy for its rapid growth during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce M-class and X-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Two partial halo CME events
associated with X-class flares on 26 October may cause geomagnetic
storming on days one and two.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
- Class M 90/90/90
- Class X 50/50/50
- Proton 25/25/25
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Oct 257
- Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/250/250
- 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 015/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 25/25/15
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 35/35/25
- Major-severe storm 25/25/15
