Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 November 2011 CORRECTED COPY

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 28 0147 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1354 (S16W64) decayed to plage late yesterday, however
early in the period today, a CME originated from the vicinity of
Region 1354. This CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
27/1036Z and appears to have no Earth directed components. At the
time of this report, an Eruptive Prominence on the Limb (EPL) was
recorded off the west limb around Region 1353 (N08W62). Early
analysis also indicates this CME not being Earth directed. New
Region 1362 (N08E76) was numbered today as it rotated onto the east
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels with an
isolated period at active levels recorded at high latitudes. Solar
wind measurements, as made by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the
possible arrival of the corotating interaction region (CIR) in front
of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 1125Z is
still in progress. Max flux for this event, so far, was 80 pfu at
27/0125Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (28-29 November). These elevated
levels are expected due to the combination of the arrival of a CH
HSS and CME effects. On day three (30 November), a slight decrease
in activity to mostly unsettled levels is expected, as the effects
of these two events wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/10/01
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 135
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 011/012-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 39/40/31
Minor storm 17/20/12
Major-severe storm 01/02/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 11/10/15
Minor storm 27/26/30
Major-severe storm 58/61/43
COMMENT: Corrected Part IA to read New Region 1362 (N08E76).