Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 926 (S08E47) developed several umbra in the trailing portion of sunspot cluster and is now classified a magnetic beta group. Region 927 (N08E59) was numbered today and appears to be a rapidly developing emerging flux region. Several B-class flares were attributed to this region today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 926.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar wind speed has steadily decreased to less than 550 km/sec during the period as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Nov 082 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01