Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 27, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 508 (S19W31) has
produced the most activity, including the largest flare of the
period, a C9.6/Sf at 27/0820 UTC. No regions exhibited significant
development. Region 507 (N07W43) continues a slow decay and is now
in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 514 (S16W46) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible from Region 507 and
Region 508.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed continues in
gradual decline. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active
conditions in higher latitudes on 29-30 November.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 27 Nov 175
  • Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 170/160/150
  • 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.