Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Nov 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Nov 27 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 508 (S19W31) has
produced the most activity, including the largest flare of the
period, a C9.6/Sf at 27/0820 UTC. No regions exhibited significant
development. Region 507 (N07W43) continues a slow decay and is now
in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 514 (S16W46) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible from Region 507 and
Region 508.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed continues in
gradual decline. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active
conditions in higher latitudes on 29-30 November.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Nov 175
- Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 170/160/150
- 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 05/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
