Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1492 produced a long
duration C-class flare at 27/0552Z. This event was associated with a
CME observed off the southeast limb of the solar disk in LASCO C2/C3
and does not appear to be earth directed. Another more impressive
CME was observed at the end of the period yesterday. No flare was
observed in conjunction due to a source from around the west limb.
However, type II and IV radio sweeps were observed from the event,
in addition to a later observed 10 MeV proton event (NOAA Scale S1).
The CME shock and driver cloud are observable in LASCO C2/C3 as a
backside asymmetric halo and are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (28-30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
at geosynchronous orbit that began at 27/0535Z, reached a maximum of
14 pfu at 27/1045Z and ended at 27/1235Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (28-30 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 111
Predicted 28 May-30 May 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 27 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10