Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 May 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
May 27, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 27 2216 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No flares were
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active with a chance for
minor storm levels on day 1 (28 May). Unsettled to active levels are
expected on day 2 (29 May). Activity on days one and two is forecast
due to the expected arrival of the two CMEs observed on 23 and 24
May. Unsettled to active, with a chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day three (30 May) as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 072
Predicted 28 May-30 May 073/073/075
90 Day Mean 27 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 020/020-018/020-020/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/40/55
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/45/50
Minor storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.