Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled May 28. There remains the possibility of isolated active periods. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet May 29 – 30.

III. Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 May 067
• Predicted 28 May-30 May 065/065/065
• 90 Day Mean 27 May 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 010/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 006/010-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01