Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 885 (S12W54) produced two B-class flares today. The largest of these was a B7 flare at 27/1643Z. Region 888 (N06W77) produced a B1 flare at 27/0723Z. Region 889 (S03E12) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, but there is a slight chance for a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 28 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 May. Mostly unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 30 May due to transient effects.

III. Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 May 083
• Predicted 28 May-30 May 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 27 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 001/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 005/005-010/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/30
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05