Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 948 (S02W56) has decayed into a unipolar region.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 550 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (28 – 30 March). Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Mar 073
• Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 074/074/072
• 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 007/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01