Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 27, 2005
Filed under ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 745
(N12W24) continues to slowly decay. No significant activity was
observed on the solar disk or limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Just two small and magnetically simple sunspot
groups exist on the visible disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Solar wind speed, which is elevated due to a high speed
coronal hole stream, is in decline. The wind speed began the period
near 650 km/s, but gradually weakened to around 550 km/s. The
greater that 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 27 Mar 078
  • Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 080/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 012/016
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 010/013
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 010/015-008/012-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.