Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 27 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 745
(N12W24) continues to slowly decay. No significant activity was
observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Just two small and magnetically simple sunspot
groups exist on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Solar wind speed, which is elevated due to a high speed
coronal hole stream, is in decline. The wind speed began the period
near 650 km/s, but gradually weakened to around 550 km/s. The
greater that 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Mar 078
- Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 012/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 010/013
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 010/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
