Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 27, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 586
(S18W80) produced four, low-level C-class flares during the past 24
hours. Region 582 (N14E45) continues to be the largest group on the
disk but was quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region
582 being the most likely source.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind data
show the continuation and intensification of the high speed stream.
The velocity increased from around 600 km/s up to about 900 km/s
between 1500Z and 2100Z. At the same time density decreased,
temperature increased, and Alfven wave activity in the magnetic
field components appeared to increase.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be
mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (27-29 March) as
the high speed stream is likely to persist.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 27 Mar 128
  • Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 125/120/115
  • 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 015/018-015/018-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.