Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1236
(N16, L=170) produced two B-class flares from behind the west limb.
The most significant flare from Region 1236 was a long-duration B6
flare at 27/1542Z. Region 1241 (N18W46) produced a B3/Sf flare at
27/1216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels during the period (28 – 30 June), with a chance for
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled to
active levels at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (28 – 30 June).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 089
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 092/094/096
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01