Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jun 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed between 0000 – 0300Z. Solar wind speed ranged from 590 – 675 km/s during the forecast period. The solar wind observations were consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (28 June). Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 – 30 June).

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jun 066
• Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 065/065/065
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 017/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 007/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/10/10
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01