Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 897 (N06E44) has developed in complexity and is now a Cai beta-gamma group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 897 may produce C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 28 – 29 June due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 30 June.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jun 079
• Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 012/020-010/015-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01