Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 781 (N16E76)
produced an impulsive C2.8 flare at 0848 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 781 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with solar wind speed ending the
period at 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained above high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28 June, from the possible
effects of a weak CME shock associated with the disappearing
filament observed on 25 June. Activity should subside to quiet
conditions on 29-30 June.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

• Class M 05/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jun 077
• Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 006/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 012/012-008/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01