Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force

Updated 2004 Jun 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Several C-class flares
occurred during the period. Region 637 (N08W16) produced a C1.0/Sf
at 27/0358 UTC. Region 635 (S10W90) produced a C2.3 at 27/1557 UTC.
New Region 639 (N11E73) produced a C1.6 flare at 27/1931 UTC. Two
new regions were numbered today: Region 639 (N11E73) and Region 640
(S09E68).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 635, 637, and 639 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
observed at ACE remains below 400 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active conditions possible
28-29 June from the effects of high speed solar wind from a
geoeffective coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

• Class M 15/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jun 097
• Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 010/012-012/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05