Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 123
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/45/25
Minor storm 05/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/65/30