Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during most of the period (28 – 30 July). However, there is a chance for unsettled levels early on 28 July.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jul 066
• Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01