Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1402 (N29W88) produced
an X1/1f flare at 27/1837Z with associated Type II (est. speed 1523
km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps, along with an 810 pfu Tenflare. An
associated CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
27/1827Z. The majority of the ejecta is directed towards the STEREO
A spacecraft, however, further analysis is necessary to determine
potential geoeffectiveness.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
on day one (28 January) with a chance for isolated M-class activity
as Region 1402 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to
be very low to low on days two and three (29-30 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods observed at mid-latitudes and an isolated minor storm period
observed at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit were above event threshold during the period
due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event, which began at 27/1905Z and reached 96 pfu at the time of
this writing, is still in progress. The greater than 100 MeV proton
event, which began at 27/1900Z and reached 11 pfu at the time of
this writing, is also still in progress. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux
value was enhanced due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 January) due to
continued effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days two and three (29-30 January). The greater than 10
MeV and 100 MeV proton events are expected to continue on day one. A
more reliable end time will be possible once the peak levels are
observed.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 25/01/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 99/50/01
PCAF Red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 142
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01